When a run-off seemed inexorable, a tormenting American endeavor to re-elect the pre-selected president for Afghanistan has been abruptly accomplished with a phony Hobson’s choice. General McChrystal has pawned his career off to the White House by buying into ‘classical’ COIN doctrine as a real McCoy to pacify Afghanistan.
The main premise of the counterinsurgency theory stipulates that in a ‘war of ideas’ (that’s what COIN is all about), the legitimacy & credibility of the indigenous government is a prerequisite to win the hackneyed ‘hearts & minds’ of the population and to avoid the stigma of ‘invaders & occupiers’ for the foreign friendly forces.
To declare a pre-selected foreign stooge the Afghan president is a provocative call to renounce COIN modus operandi, to provide a feeding frenzy for the ‘freedom fighters’ psyops and to insult & alienate ‘accidental guerillas’ to the full tilt.
Kudos to AFPAK kibitzer and sorry for US/ISAF Commander!
Show comments (3)On August 30, the newly appointed US commander in Afghanistan, General McChrystal, submitted his Afghan strategy review to the US Commander-in-Chief.
Two month later, he’s still in HALO waiting mode for his marching orders and force requirements to be approved and acted upon, while the White House brainstorming has so far produced only sitting-on-the-pants paralysis-thru-analysis.
Thus, the US military’s new Afghan strategy has been rendered obsolete and irrelevant by political sandblasts, even before getting a clean bill of health.
It’s high time for the CENTCOM chief, General Petraeus, to step out from the information shadow, finish off the tug-of-war between his subordinates and superiors, and break the strategic stalemate in Afghanistan.
To jumpstart the Afghan mission, CENTCOM King David ought to outflank AFPAK narco-bulldog and tell it like it is to the Commander-in-Chief: you can’t tackle Afghanistan without Pakistan; to defuse Pakistan, first and foremost, you gotta deal with Pushtunistan.
04 November, 2009, 03:49
Geno,
Evgeni Malkin (from Russia) is one of the two stars of the NHL Champion Pittsburgh Penguins hockey team. He lives in Pittsburgh and loves it. People in Pittsburgh affectionately call him Geno. I'm sure he will be a star on Russia's National team in Vancouver. (The definite favorite to win the Gold Medal)
Eugene (geno) from San Francisco
Born and raised in Pittsburgh
03 November, 2009, 16:20
Fully agree. Until the issue of Durand line is solved --- yet one more of the dying British empire trip-wires --- there will be problems with "Afghanistan". The best solution would be to separate Pashtunistan from Pakistan and Afghanistan, and create a new country under the protection of UN. The country will be a buffer between intervention-prone Pakistan, and the more northern-aliance oriented Afghanistan. Afghanistan can exist in name as a country in today's borders only if everybody leaves them alone to settle their scores in their own way. This is not likely to happen, as the hyper-West just does not get the concept of "leave Afghanistan alone".
Therefore the only solution is to allow Pashtunistan to become a country. Afghanistan, or what is left of it, should be allowed to gravitate to its natural neighborhood. It should join SCO, and over time CSTO, and the economic and security issues would be addressed.
I do not believe that anything will happen by reasoning and based on logic. What will happen is a dragged out warfare, with the growing emphasis on drugs proliferation out to Russia and Central Asian republics to fund subversive forces there. Well known and respected individuals from Pakistan to Afghanistan, with the access to the information, have made public statements on the role of NATO military in ferrying drugs, as well as imposing "taxes" on drugs.
So, it will be the race for time. On one hand, the objective is to spill the war into the Tajikistan-Uzbekistan-Kyrgizstan areas, for starters, to undermine the strategic value of SCO as an economic organization and CSTO as a military alliance. Once the area is subject to instability, all the strategic pipeline projects from Turkmenistan to China would suffer using the Central Asian space, and would set back the prospects for the developement of the region as energy and trade route for generations to come.
On the other hand, the pressing problems created in Pakistan, may distract from the original goal --- the expansion to Central Asia. Wlll Pakistan get out of control? Will the proponents of expanding wars in Washington continue to get any amount of money they want? Will the neglected Palestinian-Israeli problem spin out of control? How long will the feable leadership in Egypt survive, before changing the map of the Middle East? And that is not to even mention Iran.
NATO is now running against the time. What looked like an easy case of "stay-forever", by periodically changing the tune and renaming the enemy --- is now in doubt.
And all of this was put in doubt by trying to tear down Karzai, the very man NATO created. Just like in Vientam's Diem case, US is tearing down its ally. This is potentially a big mistake. An ally, corrupt or not, remains an ally. Unless it is clear that US is loosing the war, so it is time to justify at home the reason for pulling out, or choosing to occupy only larger centers and garrison forces there.
The change of strategy is comming, planned or not.
A mole who has penetrated Foggy Bottom is meticulously compromising and discrediting US AfPak policy from within.
Officially, he is the US envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Unofficially, he’s undercover Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to the United States, representing the vested interests of the United Kingdom of Narco-Freedom.
To the rejoice of narco-freedom fighters, he singlehandedly brainwashed the White House into putting under the skids the war on drugs, bulldozed the Administration into a presidential election booby-trap in Afghanistan, and force-fed it a policy of appeasement in Pakistan.
As a result, the newly emerging AfPak strategy has been effectively paralyzed and sent into a tailspin, overwhelmed by the momentous flux of events on the ground.
Tormented for decades by the glory of Kissinger and Brzezinski, he’s always been hell-bent on outshining them both. In a devious way, he’s gotten more than he bargained for – the notoriety of Trotsky. Atta boy!
03 November, 2009, 16:31
when i was a boy i studied the american indian wars, particularly the apache. one man had an idea of how to fight them when everything else had failed. his name was general george crook. look him up! he did however in my view make one mistake. he used them as an american unit instead of turning them free to do what they did better than anyone else. afghanistan is very much the same situation from the mountains to the people. the apache are a nation but fought in tribes and bands even clans. one of the more successful was Ulzana who only had 11 men on a two year raid. the point is, afghanies are the same and the taliban roam freely because they are not looking around every corner. if the americans used crooks idea
, with a little innovation the taliban would experience the terror they inflict. not so easy to move around if you think your own people are waiting to pounce.
31 October, 2009, 08:01
Russia should do what it takes to have the evil US expelled from central Asia. The Bin Ladeen story this is all crap. Colonization of central Asia is the evil’s plan. Good that RT political analysts start to see it.
31 October, 2009, 06:55
And thank you Bianca for just saying it:
"The mess in Afghanistan and Pakistan is not an accident. It is a planned chaos. This is the hallmark of Kissinger, Brzezinski.....and someone very much aspiring to outdo them all."
31 October, 2009, 06:00
It would be good in the future Eugene if you discussed how the events and networks in Afghanistan and Pakistan effect the stability of Russia, Central Asia and China and which one is more at risk.
A good article about the rapid increase of militant activity in Eurasia.
“Thus we`ll face a «real threat of growing Islamic sentiments and terror activity in Russia's southern borders - in Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan) and in Russia's North Caucasus (Chechnya, North Ossetia, Dagestan)».
Notably, we've been witnessing the gravest crime situation in Central Asia since this May, especially in Uzbekistan where the number of terror attacks and armed clashes have risen sharply in recent months. In case thousands of militants return to Uzbekistan, separate clashes may grow into a guerrilla war like the one during the civil war in Tajikistan”
http://en.fondsk.ru/article.php?id=2544
I agree with Bianca I don't think this is just a series of bad policy decision by the US over the years since the collapse of the USSR starting in the Balkans I think this is an overall strategy
If the want to stop Afghan drug trade then why did the support and train the KLA to takeover Kosovo help create Albanian drug and organised crime networks in Europe and give them a free hand by giving them independence which they would not be able to operate freely without US support.
I think this is to push them into Central Asia from Afghanistan to destabilise the region with the Islamist announcing a major push and using its resources to destabilise Xinjing cutting of a strategic oil transit route from Kazakhstan to China.
http://en.fondsk.ru/article.php?id=2530
If Uzbekistan is destabilised will people finally see the connection to TGC?
"Uzbekistan, nationally the most vital and the most populous of the central Asian states, represents the major obstacle to any renewed Russian control over the region. Its independence is critical to the survival of the other Central Asian states, and it is the least vulnerable to Russian pressures." (p. 121)
"Uzbekistan is, in fact, the prime candidate for regional leadership in Central Asia." (p.130)
In fact, an Islamic revival - already abetted from the outside not only by Iran but also by Saudi Arabia - is likely to become the mobilizing impulse for the increasingly pervasive new nationalisms, determined to oppose any reintegration under Russian - and hence infidel - control." (p. 133).
As there are reports Uzbek militants are running air flights into Pakistan.
http://en.fondsk.ru/article.php?id=2476&search=uzbek
31 October, 2009, 00:53
seems like pretty good educated guess of whats likely to happen :)
not that any of that is funny however, cause nothing is funny when people die pointlessly. US as empire should get down- the west in general is a big murderer singing about how nice it will be (like 6 feet under ...)
All this obsession with controlling the whole world...crazy but real. Nothing to ignore for sure tho.
29 October, 2009, 16:28
I was wondering when will someone just say it as it is...
Thank you!
The mess in Afghanistan and Pakistan is not an accident. It is a planned chaos. This is the hallmark of Kissinger, Brzezinski.....and someone very much aspiring to outdo them all.
One never knows, perhaps he is just following their advice. The slow and plodding process of gradually destabilizing, criminalizing and then occupying the ground, has proven too slow. With the budgets in dire straights, the whole Trotskyite schema is in danger of being hung up to dry in Afghan mountains. This is why acceleration was a must.
It was clear from the outset that the prospect of Karzai winning on his own right was a non-starter. In fact, his strategy of lining up the traditional tribal power-brokers, was the only way to Afghanize the control over the war. That did not suit the mastermind. Not at all. Karzai with support of Afghan power brokers was already a factor in the region, and that alone had to be brought to an end.
The reaction from the Obama administration to the election was a fascinating thing to watch. At first, there were the predictable cries of election fraud. The idea was simple: get Karazi to accept Hallbroke handpicked handmaiden, Abdullah Abdullah. Karzai refused. All of a sudden, the White House changed the tune, reluctantly coming to terms with Karzai's victory... then it was back to sticking with the "fraud" story. Something is not adding up.
How did it escape the attention of the world's brightest that the northern regions that were peaceful, and never under Taliban rule, suddenly have to fight back --- the Taliban! Where did they come from? They have no air force, and could not just use the NATO controlled roads to travel to the North? In a similar pattern as just before Pakistani attack on Tribal Agency, Northern tribal chiefs and police chiefs were attacked and murdered! In one instance, the local tribesmen managed to fight back and had surrounded Taliban fighters. To their shock and surprise, helicopters showed up from nowhere to scoop them away in a rescue operation! NATO is denying the "helicopter" stories, but they are credible. People who fought off Taliban, saw what they saw.
This, and many other such attacks were registered by locals. They all saw the helicopters that would bring dozens of Taliban. In some cases, Taliban succeeded to take over and hold a chunk of territory. In others, it was a case of hit and run. The northern tribes, mostly Uzbeki and Tajik, realize what is happening. They are afraid that Pakistan, with the US blessing, is shipping "their" Taliban into the Afghanistan's North. There is now sizable number of Taliban that have "crossed over", in fact, who have never crossed over from being the tools of the master agent provocateur. For a good amount of cash and arms, the new and improved "Taliban" is ready to take the fight to destabilize North. And this is the role of helpless Abdullah Abdullah. The idea is that being a "northerner" (sort of), and the member of Northern Alliance (a spokesperson who probably never held a gun), he would from his perch in Karzai government speak on behalf of the North. The legitimacy will be therefore conferred on the upcoming battle for the North. He is supposed to be sitting in the sort of co-presidential role with Karazi being sidelined --- and tell us all about the noble fight that NATO and "Afgani people", that is Taliban-for-hire, are waging against the "warlords"! His role is to legitimize the destruction of the remnants of Northern Alliance. The dream of Kissinger and Brzezinski will then be closer to realization then ever before. With the gates open to the valley connecting Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgizstan --- the infiltration of murderous thugs in the area will commence full speed. There has already been a great deal of ground work done. Local extremists are hoping for better financial and military support. Once the north has been conquered, the flow of armaments can commence without restraint.
At the moment, these extremists in Central Asia are surviving off the drug trade. This is why the production of poppies in Afghanistan has tripled. With the new plan, northern alliance must switch the sides, and provide new militants for hire to infiltrate Central Asia. Because Pashtun Taliban are useless there. This is another world. And this is why "Taliban" is needed only to destroy the governance of the northern tribes, and sit around until Abdullah Abdullah takes the "Afghani army" into the "lawless north", and removes the "warlords". Once this is done, the Mastermind knows that it will be only a matter of time to recruit locals for the new holly war on neighboring states.
Mastermind is in a hurry. The American people have become irritable and want the war to end. The congressmen, as willing as they are to cave in to the armaments industry and the legions of "privateers", are nervous. Especially the Democrats. People who elected them KNOW that democrats have the majority to do what they please. They are now acting dumb, expecting us to believe that because of the newly discovered rule of "60" in the Senate, they cannot do much.
The public is getting the whiff of a delay, of dragging their congressional feet, as if some last moment miracle is about to unfold. As if someone wants them to be patient for one more last push. And this dithering is coming from Obama administration that is expecting Karzai to cave in, and accept Abdullah Abdullah into his ranks. He has already caved in and accepted the run off. In order for the runoff to be TOTALLY rigged in favor of Abdullah Abdullah, MOST OF THE ELECTION MONITORS have been sacked, and WILL NOT BE REPLACED. Many polling stations have been eliminated, under the excuse that these stations had fraudulent results in the first round! How clever! Those that voted "wrong", will not have A chance to vote again! And to think, UN will be right there conferring legitimacy to this rubbish!
Sooner or later, according to the Mastermind, Abdullah Abdullah will be in the corridors of Kabul power. From that point on, microphones will be only in front of him. And then, Obama Administration will agree to "help" the new Afghan government and respond to "their" request for more soldiers. The armaments industry will get its wish, and more soldiers will be going to Afghanistan. Those will be immediately dispatched to the North, to bravely support the "good Taliban" and Afghan Army in their quest to rid the north of the "warlords", opium growers, and all other such wholesome goals. The result will be more refugees, this time into Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. This ethnic and tribal cleansing will reduce the power of these minorities in Afghanistan, and expand the effective rule of US puppets in Kabul.
But plans are plans. Reality can prove different. Over one million of refugees in Pakistan, and unknown number and the organization potential of dissent in Pakistan, the overconfident manner in which Karzai is to be sidelined, the risks of "talibanization" of the North, the unpredictable nature of the battle for the North --- all tell of the gambler's nature of the Mastermind. He has clashed the swords in Balkans --- and he thinks he knows it all. Afghanistan is not Balkans in the nineties. The world has changed.
The risks to the Central Asia, and by implications to Russia and China, are great. How to remain patient and not get sucked in? What precautionary measures need to be taken?
And perhaps the battle will not be fought on that front at all. As in all asymmetrical wars, one has to look at other events for clues. Among them, visit to Iran by Turkey's Prime Minister comes to mind. In the concluding paragraph, the two countries have decided to use their national currencies for the bilateral trade. As this also includes energy, this is another "paper cut" in the fate of dollar. And one of the most powerful "warlords" of Afghanistan's North happens to reside in Turkey.
Masterminds need to pay more attention to other fronts. They are slowly but surely loosing Turkey and Japan as the countries that used to reflexively adhere to US foreign policy. Turkey has been gradually changing its role now for a decade, and its regional clout has grown. Its cooperation with Russia, Russian and Turkish identical positions on Iran, have become troublesome for US. Quietly, it has been murmured that Japan is currently a bigger headache to the Administration then China.
The problem with Masterminds, past and present, is their unique obsession. They have been obsessed with the Eurasian landmass, and the theories of the world control. They have been obsessed with Russia, and continue to be obsessed with Russia. They believe (and not without reason) that China is militarily still weak, and could be easily intimidated into submission. But the problem is --- Russia. With the nuclear arsenal still there in the Eurasian landmass, any schema of world domination must deal with Russia first. Like all other obsessions, its masterminds fail to see the deteriorating situation on other fronts in their single, passionate pursuit of their own greatness.
05 November, 2009, 18:51
I definitely do not agree with the recommendation. That Richard Halbrooke does not know anything else but the Balkanization, everyody is aware off. He is a one trick pony.
But Pashtunistan seems today a step closer to the reality. US may not be in position to do anything else. It seems that I guessed right earlier that Pakistani's military was going to have one and only solution for Pashtunistan mess. And that is allowing Pakistani military to arrange a process of AfPak unification of Pashtunistan accross the Durand line. However, the talk with Chinese leadership is well under way. It is no secret that Chinese interests in Pakistan will have to be taken into account.
The test of this will be in Balochistan, and the fate of anti-Iranian groups in that territory. In the process, Zardari, once the darling of US establishment, may have come to the end of his usefullness. Musharaf deal that gave him the right to participate in political process by removing the criminal charges against him, will have hard time passing in Parliament. Zardari has not submitted it to the Parliament, but is counting on Courts to review it. He is not going to find the Supreme Court sympatethic either.
Karazi --- corrupt or not --- would have won against Abdullah any time. Abdullah Abdullah had zero chance winning. It is absurd to talk about corruption in Afghanistan. Corruption is the life blood of occupations. This is the only way any business is done. Occupying powers do not use some "democratic" means to disburse the funds. It is all corrupt --- and everybody lives of corruption, the form of "give and take". This whole talk of "corruption" does not pass the straight face test.
And how is Halbrooke to be credited with this "victory"? In Pakistan, they are losing their horse, Zardari. They have to talk to the military, something they for sure thought was a thing of the past. Hillary learned many a lesson on her last visit --- none of them predicted and even less managed by Halbrooke.
The huge question remain what happens to the North. By trying to topple Karzai, and having failed to do so, US has pulled the rug from underneath Abullah. The pressure will not be on for Karzai to remove some "difficult" ministers.
But the war is already on. The announcement from Karzai's government that NATO forces are taxing drug producers is a stern warning on the kinds of activities that have been talked about for a long time, but never spelled out.
The Afghanistan may not remain a single state. Here is where Halbrooke and Ms. Clinton are making a big mistake. The parallels with Balkans do not hold for a number of reasons. Mostly, because the world dynamic has changed entirely. China's efforts to establish its own energy corridor in cooperation with Russia and Central Asian Republics, are dependant on these countries remaining stable. Halbrooke plan depends on creating more chaos among the various tribes of the North, to infiltrate and destabilize the region, and undermine Chinese land-bridge to energy.
US depends of China for very clear and obvious reasons to keep its economy afloat. Russia has more leverage in the region then US would like. That does not mean that infuriated Halbrooke and unsucessfull Hillary are not capable of some unpredictable moves. But Obama will have to look at the things from the overall benefit/detriment of US interests. At the moment, all the strategizing has not improved the US position in AfPak area. Just the opposite. It has made it weaker.
It is weaker in Pakistan. US now has to rely on military to do the "regime change" in North-West Fronteer tribal set up, but does Hillary actually know whom is the Pakistani military going to put in charge? This is a FREEBE to Pakistani's military. First, the public is fearfull of extremists, so some amount of support for the Army exists. However, Pakistani public is sqarely blaming Zardari, and US for the violence that befell on Pakistan. Zardari will soon have to pick another place of exile, while US will have to trust Pakistani Army. Once Pashtunistan is united across the borders, US will find it hard to dictate terms without doing it with Pakistani Army and China as a part of the deal.
The botched attempt at Karazi removal is all the buzz. Such slights are not forgiven easily in Afghani culture. This has exposed the US alliances in the North, and these have now nowhere to hide. With very little left to do for Halbrooke in Pakistan, he will turn with his known zeal to the North. But here too, US will find it hard to stay indefinitely with the constant low grade warfare. For the first time in German history, the new Defence Minister has admitted that they are in a war, not "peacekeeping". This will add pressure to withdraw.
Can US continue to put pressure on Iran? The proposed set of "sanctions" would essentially amount to being self-imposed sanctions on the West, rather then have any impact on Iran. The expansion of existing refineries and the plans to build six new by China, would solve the problem of gasoline imports. There will be no new sanctions in UN, and the unilateral sanctions by the West will not affect Iran's neighbors. Can US continue down the same path? It is getting harder, and harder.
Can US continue to reject the calls to stabilize Afganistan's northern provinces? When those calls come from all Afghanistans neighbors, as well as China? Will China and Russia just sit back as the energy transit lands are engulfed in the spillover violence from Afganistan? Halbrooke may think China and Russia are Serbia, and he can intimidate them with the power of his personality and some bombing to make his point.
He is out of his depth. His ego is propelling him forward, leaving a mess in its wake. The whole idea of deligitimizing Karzai, and forcing him to take Abdullah Abdullah as his "Chief Executive", sort of Prime Minister --- was riduculous. Karazi outsmarted him, by acting like he was going to refuse run-off, just to agree to it. And the last ditch effort to save face, Halbrooke was hoping that Afghans would delay the runoff to spring. No support for that one, either. US had no choice but to let the silly idea go. It is focusing on the Pashtunistan, thinking that would be easy!
It will have to come back to deal with the rest, but under more deteriorating circumstances. Afghani Taliban now know what is at stake, and will make US life as hard as possible for a good deal.
What are US friends in Afghanistan, Pakistan, or in the neighborhood? Apart from getting India into self-imposed isolation, there is not one country in the region that would support US goals. While Karazi has now turned into an enemy, Zardari is counting his months before he will be forced to flee. Who would speak now for the democratic values of NATO occupation? With helpless Abdullah off the stage, nobody. He may keep on talking through NATO media. And even school children would laugh.
05 November, 2009, 06:24
Gene,
cannot agree more. We have the best president in our living memory, and what happens? Either things are really that bad, and there are forces we do not understand, or he is being cautious. I have tried every possible explanation for this, and the only one that may hold water looks like a strong passive aggressive strategy. There are a lots of very oppinionated people around him. Starting from Hillary and Halbrooke, and down the line in Pentagon. Add to this the military brass that cannot ever say anyting other then "victory". He just may have to let them run like crazy, cause some chaos and mistakes. He will have his Republican opposition be on record --- loudly --- in support of policy that will not work. And when everybody gets sick and tired, may be he will get going. But there are infinite number of ways neocon can con him, and always the result will be same. Look for more resources, more men, more everything. And then, possibly, drag some other country into the war. The more the merrier, and harder to get out off.
He is risking a whole lot. Without some international agreement, he will not get far. But how to get past his own democrats in Congress that are indistinguishable from the most rabbid right wing?
04 November, 2009, 17:47
Eugene,
I e-mailed the White House today and suggested to Mr. Obama: "This life is not a practice session, it is the only shot we get. Your Presidency, sir is NOT a practice session for a second term. Critics be damned. Come out with guns blazing. I need you, sir, to be the kind of guy who says 'I don't care if I get re-elected, this is my plan and I AM THE PRESIDENT'"
Eugene, this is the best President in my lifetime. I do not want him to run scared of critics.
Gene Hopkins, San Francisco